Why Southlake's School-Driven Market Has Empty Classrooms, and What Carroll ISD's 2027 Realignment Means for Your Address

A family buying a Southlake home this fall for a child in fourth grade or younger is buying into a middle school path that changes in August 2027. That month, Carroll ISD closes Durham Intermediate. Fifth graders will stay at their home elementary campuses, and grades 6 through 8 will split between two middle school campuses. The board voted unanimously for the plan at a special workshop on January 12, 2026. The district's consolidation page says high schools are unaffected.

The realignment follows from something portal pricing does not show. Southlake's housing scarcity and the district's enrollment decline have the same cause, and that cause now shapes campus assignments, district finances and where the next new homes could come from.

The Path From Elementary to Middle School in 2027–28

Under the plan, middle school grades go to Carroll Middle School and to a new combined campus in the current Dawson Middle and Eubanks Intermediate buildings. Each elementary has one feeder destination:

Carroll Elementary changes the most. Under the old model, its students usually split between Durham and Eubanks. Now all of them stay together in one feeder path. The district says the Eubanks building will stay in use as part of one middle school campus with Dawson. The current concept connects the two buildings with a breezeway, and the district says many details are still being decided.

The district's enrollment dashboard says who is covered. The change applies only to students currently in fourth grade or below. Students in fifth, sixth or seventh grade stay in their current feeder patterns. Affected families who want Durham Intermediate and Carroll Middle School can file a transfer request through Student Services. The same page says all out-of-district transfer students will now be zoned to Eubanks and Dawson. That group includes Westlake students, children of first responders and children of Carroll ISD staff.

What the district has not published matters just as much for a buyer. When the board voted in January, Superintendent Jeremy Glenn said no rezoning discussions were underway. The September 28, 2026 board update said transition teams were working on curriculum, the fifth-grade experience, facilities, staffing and special-program logistics. It included no final 2027–28 boundary map or vote date. The FAQ says boundaries will follow board-approved parameters. Where feeder patterns change, students already attending a campus outside their new boundary are grandfathered until their next school level.

Why a District This Sought-After Has Room to Spare

The district's annual financial report shows enrollment of 8,490 in 2022–23, then 8,292 in 2023–24 and 8,105 in 2024–25. In December 2025, Carroll communications director Jeff Brady told the board enrollment had fallen to 7,870, down from a 2019 peak of 8,525. He estimated the decline has cost $8 million a year in revenue since 2019. "This enrollment trend is not changing," Brady said. "It's very definite and it's consistent." Community Impact reported a demographer forecast of 7,063 students by 2030–31.

Fort Worth Report reported the cause plainly. Enrollment has slowed because older families have kept their homes instead of selling, and the supply of infill lots has shrunk. Trustee Eric Lannen pointed to Southlake empty nesters whose children grew up while the parents stayed in town.

The same pattern holds homes off the market. When fewer houses change hands and few lots are left to build on, fewer households with young children arrive. The district is now working with what that leaves. It has almost 100 empty classrooms, enough for nearly 2,000 more students, and it pays to heat, cool and maintain them.

The district's fall 2025 demographic study included a long-run price table. Average existing-home sale prices rose from $593,810 in 2019 to $1,654,373 in 2025 through the date of the report. These figures describe the historical trend and are not a current market reading. They show that over the same years enrollment fell, the cost of entering the district roughly tripled.

State funding adds pressure. In June 2026, the district projected 7,670 students for 2026–27, a drop of 200. District officials said that decline means about $1.7 million less in state funding. Tax collections also came in below budget for 2025–26. Officials tied that mainly to a state law change that raised the homestead exemption to $140,000 from $100,000 and raised the 65-and-older freeze amount to $60,000 from $10,000. The district has said the earlier voter-approved tax rate election did not fully solve its long-term funding pressure.

The District Is Becoming a Land Seller

Low turnover helped create the budget gap, and the district is now closing that gap by selling property. As of the September 28, 2026 board president's report, these sites are involved:

1. Durham Intermediate, 801 Shady Oaks Drive. In April, the board considered declaring the 30.5-acre parcel surplus and authorizing a sale broker. The June 1 report set a goal of having it under contract by August 2026. The September 28 report moved the target to the end of October, and no buyer or price has been named. The district finished a sale appraisal but has not released the amount. The Star-Telegram reported the 2025 Tarrant Appraisal District value as $3,073,802, which is a tax value and not the withheld appraisal.
2. The former Dragon Stadium site. The board approved a sale to the City of Southlake on November 3, 2025. The Star-Telegram reported the price as $8.75 million, and the city plans park and green space. Board President Cam Bryan said in the September 28 update that the sale had closed.
3. The former CIS building at Highland and North Carroll. It is under contract, with closing expected before the end of December 2026 if the city council approves.
4. A small tract beside Old Union Elementary. It is also under contract.

The district expects closing Durham to bring in about $2.5 million a year in savings and revenue. It also avoids more than $8 million in renovation costs, which the district says is the largest renovation need of any of its buildings.

Where New Homes Could Come From, and How Slowly

The Durham parcel matters beyond the district budget. When Brady presented the plan, he said the 30-acre property would be ideal for residential redevelopment. No buyer, zoning or plan has been made public. In a town where infill lots are running out, though, a 30-acre site closing in on a contract is one of the larger possible additions to housing supply.

Southlake's other recent approvals have been small and some were close votes. On August 18, 2026, City Council approved Bear Hollow, a gated neighborhood of 33 homes off Davis Boulevard, by a 4–3 vote. Council members Frances Scharli, Chuck Taggart and Eric Wang voted against it. The 20.97-acre plan by BridgeRock Developments has an average lot of 14,648 square feet, more than 7 acres of open space, private streets, two gated entrances and a 6-foot masonry wall along most of its Davis Boulevard frontage. Taggart objected to building in the floodplain portions of some lots.

Shivers Farm broke ground September 23, 2026, with Mayor Shawn McCaskill and Trademark Property Company named in the coverage. The 40-acre project plans 37 single-family homes alongside 110,000 square feet of retail and a Whole Foods. The commercial section is due by December 31, 2028, and the homes by June 30, 2029.

Together, those two projects add 70 planned homes, and many of them will come after the realignment takes effect in fall 2027. For the next few years, most Southlake buyers will be choosing among existing homes. The address they pick will put them on a feeder path the district is still finalizing.

What to Confirm Before Writing an Offer

• Your child's grade in 2026–27. The new feeder pattern applies to students currently in fourth grade or below.
• The elementary campus assigned to the specific address. That campus now determines the middle school campus, as the table above shows.
• Whether a transfer request fits your situation. The district accepts interdistrict transfer requests from affected families who want Durham Intermediate and Carroll Middle School.
• Boundary updates through closing. No final 2027–28 map had been published as of the September 28 board update. Check the district's site and board updates again before the option period ends.
• Planned development near the property. That includes the Durham site at 801 Shady Oaks Drive, Bear Hollow on Davis Boulevard and Shivers Farm.

A Few Straight Answers

Do current middle schoolers have to switch campuses? No. Students in fifth, sixth or seventh grade stay in their current feeder patterns.

What is Carroll ISD's 2026 tax rate? On August 17, 2026, Carroll ISD adopted a 2026 rate of $0.9269 per $100 of taxable value, the lowest it has recorded. That rate is $0.6853 for maintenance and operations plus $0.2416 for debt service. The district rate is only one part of a homeowner's total property tax bill.

When does the change actually start? August 2027. The district chose a long lead time to give families and staff time to plan.

If your move depends on where a Southlake address leads in 2027, Marcontell-Gilchrest Group can help you line up the campus assignment, the realignment timeline and the development nearby before you commit. Contact Us to talk through the addresses you are considering.